PM→MOO Scoring v1 — Backtest Dashboard

Period: Sep 2025 → Apr 2026 (6M) | BP $1,000/trade, no cap | Grades B+ to A+ | gap<1% & whipsaw overrides

$130,591
Total P&L
86.4%
Win Days (70/81)
12.62
Sharpe Ratio
-$4,541
Max Drawdown
307
Total Trades
73.3%
Trade WR (225W/82L)
3.8
Avg Trades/Day
$1K→$76K
BP Growth (no cap)

Equity Curve + Drawdown

Monte Carlo 1Y Projection (5000 sims)

Monthly P&L

MonthDaysW/LTradesP&LWR%
2025-0944/04+$171100%
2025-101514/160+$3,61373%
2025-111613/371+$5,73366%
2025-1276/116+$1,37369%
2026-0165/112+$3,39167%
2026-021817/1115+$87,90177%
2026-031411/326+$28,71977%
2026-0410/13-$31067%

Grade Performance

GradeNWR%Status
A+6287.1%✓ TRADE
A9275.0%✓ TRADE
B+7978.5%✓ TRADE
B15067.3%✓ TRADE
C31148.6%— skip
F14038.6%— skip

Scoring Thresholds

GradeMin ScoreEst WRSizing
A+≥1885%3.0x
A≥1580%2.0x
B+≥1378%1.5x
B≥1072%1.0x

Top Findings (13K research)

ComboNWR
gap15+bars5-16+aligned3797.3%
gap15+rsi70-80+aligned3296.9%
BUY+sz1.5+rsi70-804295.2%
beta_neg+aligned+earn_szn2095.0%
SELL+Tech+sz_neg12592.0%
SELL+sz_neg1+lo_late9191.2%
SELL+news_earn+hi_early3290.6%
SELL+AMC+sz_neg14787.2%
BMO+gap15+aligned8687.2%

Top Traps

BUY+small+sz_neg1260.0%
AMC+drift_up+hi_early310.0%
drift_up3+counter+lo_late420.0%
BUY+AMC+hi_early392.6%

Override Impact (gap<1% + whipsaw)

MetricBeforeAfterΔ
Trading days7581+8%
Total trades259307+19%
Trade WR72.6%73.3%+0.7pp
Win days82.7%86.4%+3.7pp
Total P&L$49,475$130,591+164%
Sharpe11.1912.62+13%

Earnings AMC vs BMO

SetupNWRAvg
BMO SELL (standalone)87653.4%+0.61%
AMC SELL82448.2%-0.12%
AMC BUY142046.7%-0.29%
BMO BUY119443.7%-0.57%
With sector_z filter:
SELL+AMC+sz≥14787.2%+2.23%
BMO+gap15+aligned8687.2%+5.90%
SELL+BMO+sz≥1.56985.5%+5.12%

Factor Architecture (98 factors × 3-way combos → 13,085 findings)

Direction:
BUY, SELL
Earnings:
AMC, BMO, earn_season
News:
earnings, fda, ma, analyst, guidance, product, macro, none
Ratings:
upgrade, downgrade, target_raised/lowered
Gap:
<1%, 1-3%, 3-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15%+
MCap:
small, mid, large, mega
Sector Z:
±0.5, ±1.0, ±1.5 sigma
Technical:
RSI tiers, beta tiers, prev_day
PM Pattern:
drift, range, bars, staircase, hi/lo timing
Regime:
ARKK, ES, VIX level
Calendar:
DOW, OPEX, earnings season
Alignment:
aligned/counter to sector_z