351 pairs tested | 29 groups (13 BICS + 16 Finviz themes) | PM 9:00-9:25 drift + fc_confirms | 12m + 2m
PATTERN 1
Telecom as rotation anchor: When ANY growth sector leads vs Telecom in PM, that sector continues. FV:Semis LONG 84%, Software SHORT 78%, AI SHORT 79%, Cloud SHORT 80%, FinTech SHORT 75%, Financials SHORT 75%. Telecom = "dumb money" proxy.
PATTERN 2
Materials/Energy vs Growth (SHORT): When old economy leads PM vs growth, SHORT growth works. Materials vs ITSvc 82% (N=185), Materials vs E-comm 77% (N=453), Energy vs TechHW 83% (N=118). Capital flowing from growth to value = fade growth.
PATTERN 3
FV:Semis vs Transportation/EVs LONG: 84%/75% WR. Semiconductor PM leadership vs cyclicals = strong continuation. Confirmed 2m: 91%/73%.
PATTERN 4
AI vs MedDevices LONG: 76.2% (N=101), 2m 80% (N=55), delta +31.5pp. AI leading vs defensive healthcare = high conviction growth trade.
PATTERN 5
FinTech as rotation leader: FinTech LONG vs ITSvc 81%, vs Transport 76%, vs ConsDiscr 67%. When fintech leads in PM, continuation is strong. Delta +44pp vs ITSvc!
CAUTION: 2m regime inflation
Many "improving" pairs may be regime-driven. Current high-VIX, SPY downtrend regime inflates many signals. Pairs like Biotech vs Semi SHORT at 100% (2m, N=20) are likely not sustainable. Trust 12m baseline more.
IMPLEMENTATION
For scoring v5 integration, focus on:
1. Telecom-anchor signals (broadest applicability, N>100)
2. Materials/Energy vs Growth SHORT (high N, confirmed 2m)
3. FV:Semis LONG vs anything (our original finding, extended)
4. AI/FinTech LONG as growth leaders (high delta, moderate N)