Software vs Semiconductors: Pre-Open Rotation Signal

PM drift 8:00-9:25 as capital rotation indicator | MOO 9:55 strategy | 12m + last 2 months

+15.5pp
Semi LONG: favorable vs unfavorable rotation
61.8%
Semi LONG WR (Feb-Mar 2026)
80.5%
Soft SHORT when Semi>Soft PM (2mo)
15.2%
Soft LONG when Semi>Soft PM (2mo) TRAP

Baseline: 12 Month WR

GroupDirNWR%AvgPF
SoftwareLONG3,76547.5%-0.070.92
SoftwareSHORT3,52555.2%+0.331.48
SemiconductorsLONG1,69752.7%+0.221.36
SemiconductorsSHORT1,66049.2%+0.011.01

Last 2 Months (Feb-Mar 2026)

GroupDirNWR%AvgPF
SoftwareLONG88452.4%+0.161.18
SoftwareSHORT1,18451.0%+0.161.19
SemiconductorsLONG46361.8%+0.612.03
SemiconductorsSHORT56443.6%-0.200.78

Rotation Signal: WR by PM Drift Bucket

Software: WR by Rotation Bucket (12m)

LONG

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)1,16051.6%+0.111.15
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)45935.7%-0.730.39
Neutral47454.2%+0.331.38
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)58147.3%-0.070.92
Soft>>Semi (>1%)1,09145.4%-0.150.79

SHORT

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)1,03153.6%+0.161.22
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)56555.4%+0.351.55
Neutral36750.1%-0.040.96
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)64753.9%+0.181.25
Soft>>Semi (>1%)91559.7%+0.742.35

Semiconductors: WR by Rotation Bucket (12m)

LONG

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)54157.3%+0.341.58
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)21066.7%+0.662.43
Neutral16448.8%+0.111.16
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)27857.9%+0.221.34
Soft>>Semi (>1%)50440.3%-0.060.90

SHORT

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)44850.9%+0.051.06
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)23643.6%-0.080.92
Neutral21950.7%+0.151.24
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)28753.7%-0.050.94
Soft>>Semi (>1%)47046.8%-0.020.96

Software: Last 2 Months Rotation (Feb-Mar 2026)

LONG

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)45564.8%+0.702.29
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)17115.2%-1.620.11
Neutral8451.2%+0.721.69
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)7751.9%-0.030.95
Soft>>Semi (>1%)9760.8%+0.421.43

SHORT

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)45240.0%-0.390.62
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)12880.5%+1.215.63
Neutral8137.0%-0.670.48
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)21052.9%+0.321.48
Soft>>Semi (>1%)31357.2%+0.621.89

Semiconductors: Last 2 Months (Feb-Mar 2026)

LONG

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)18963.5%+0.712.13
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)10678.3%+1.144.77
Neutral3545.7%+0.181.31
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)6065.0%+1.003.15
Soft>>Semi (>1%)7338.4%-0.550.46

SHORT

RotationNWR%AvgPF
Semi>>Soft (<-1%)24847.2%-0.160.82
Semi>Soft (-1,-0.3)4753.2%+0.793.36
Neutral5554.5%+0.693.12
Soft>Semi (0.3,1)8122.2%-1.810.16
Soft>>Semi (>1%)13342.1%-0.010.99

Key Findings & Actionable Signals

A+ SIGNAL Semi LONG when Semi>Soft in PM (-1 to -0.3%): WR 66.7% (12m, N=210), WR 78.3% (2mo, N=106). Robust across timeframes. Semi leading PM = continuation after open.
A SIGNAL Soft SHORT when Soft>>Semi in PM (>1%): WR 59.7% (12m, N=915), WR 57.2% (2mo, N=313). Mean reversion of PM overperformance. PF=2.35.
A SIGNAL Soft SHORT when Semi>Soft в PM (mild -0.3 to -1%): WR 80.5% last 2mo (N=128, PF=5.63). May be regime-specific, needs monitoring.
A SIGNAL Soft LONG when Semi>>Soft in PM (<-1%): WR 51.6% 12m, but 64.8% last 2mo (N=455). Reversal play - capital rotating back to software after semi dominance.
TRAP Soft LONG when Semi>Soft PM (-1,-0.3): WR 35.7% 12m (N=459), WR 15.2% last 2mo (N=171). HARD AVOID.
TRAP Semi LONG when Soft>>Semi (>1%): WR 40.3% 12m (N=504), WR 38.4% last 2mo (N=73). PM underperformance continues post-open.
TRAP Semi SHORT when Soft>Semi (0.3-1%): WR 22.2% last 2mo (N=81). Absolute trap.
REGIME Feb-Mar 2026: Semi LONG dominant (61.8% WR), Soft neutral. Clear capital flow into semiconductors. Semi leading PM days = high conviction continuation trades.

Daily Rotation Timeline (Feb-Apr 2026)