Software vs Semiconductors: PM Rotation Deep Dive

9 research directions | 12m data | MOO 9:55 strategy

92.3%
Semi LONG rot_fav+fc+ARKK (N=26)
90.5%
Semi LONG rot_fav+ARKK>Q+2 (N=42)
78.3%
Semi LONG rot_fav+mom>2% (N=46)
69.1%
Semi LONG rot_fav+fc (N=408)
66.7%
Soft SHORT rot_fav+fc (N=576)
TRAP
Soft LONG Semi>Soft mild: WR 24%

1. PM Timing: 9:00-9:25 vs 8:00-9:00

9:00-9:25 Window (best signal)

9:00-9:25 gives sharper signals. Semi LONG: 62.5% when Semi>>Soft vs 42.9% when Soft>>Semi (19.6pp delta). Software SHORT: 64.7% when Soft>Semi vs 48.1% when Soft>>Semi.

8:00-9:00 Window (different pattern)

8:00-9:00 shows different dynamics. Semi LONG peaks at Semi>>Soft (58.3%) but Soft>Semi also strong (59.3%). Software SHORT best at Soft>>Semi (62.4%).

2. Factor Combos (rotation + existing signals)

+ fc_confirms

ComboNWR%PF
Semi LONG fav+fc=Y40869.1%3.81
Semi LONG fav+fc=N34041.8%0.57
Soft SHORT fav+fc=Y57666.7%3.33
Soft SHORT fav+fc=N62938.0%0.54
Semi SHORT fav+fc=Y29662.8%2.43
Soft LONG fav+fc=Y76862.8%2.08

fc_confirms = game changer. Without fc: all setups below 42%.

+ ARKK regime

ComboNWR%PF
Semi LONG fav+ARKK>Q+24290.5%19.61
Semi LONG fav+fc+ARKK2692.3%55.23
Soft LONG unfav+ARKK>Q+29190.1%9.77
Soft SHORT unfav+ARKK<Q-211292.9%30.08

ARKK regime dominates everything. N small but WR extreme.

+ 1st Candle Momentum

ComboNWR%PF
Semi LONG unfav+mom>2%2982.8%62.84
Semi LONG fav+mom>2%4678.3%7.89
Semi LONG fav+mom 0.5-2%14577.9%5.71
Soft SHORT fav+mom<-2%8275.6%5.42
Soft LONG fav+mom 0.5-2%27173.1%3.18
Soft SHORT fav+mom -2:-0.528471.1%3.65

Momentum aligned with direction = huge boost. Counter-momentum = TRAP.

3. Magnitude Sweet Spot (fine buckets, 9:00-9:25)

Semi LONG: sweet spot at -2:-1% and 0.5:1.5%

Software SHORT: bimodal - best at -2:-0.5% and 0.5:1%

4. Multi-Day Persistence & Contextual Signals

Multi-Day Streak

StreakGroupDirNWR%
Semi 3d+SoftSHORT31363.3%
Semi 2dSemiLONG20461.8%
Soft 3d+SemiLONG18956.1%
Semi 3d+SoftLONG45935.5%
Soft 1dSemiLONG44742.7%

3+ days Semi streak: Soft SHORT 63.3%, but Soft LONG crashes to 35.5%. Semi 2d = Semi LONG 61.8%.

3-Day Stock Momentum

3d RetGroupDirFav WRUnfav WR
>+5%SemiLONG59.2%64.5%
-2:0%SemiLONG62.0%51.0%
+2:+5%SoftLONG54.5%45.5%
<-5%SoftSHORT58.9%56.2%
>+5%SemiSHORT55.7%47.2%

3d momentum less impactful than fc momentum. Semi LONG -2:0% + fav rotation = 62%.

VIX Regime

VIXGroupDirFav WRUnfav WR
All VIX>25SemiLONG56.6%54.1%
All VIX>25SoftSHORT51.8%55.0%
All VIX>25SoftLONG49.9%45.3%

All data falls in VIX>25 bucket (PM data mostly 5yr earnings which was high-VIX). Need more VIX diversity.

5. Exit Timeframe Comparison

Favorable Rotation: WR by Exit Minute

Unfavorable Rotation: WR by Exit Minute

Key Findings & Scoring Recommendations

A+ ELITE Semi LONG + rot_favorable + fc_confirms + ARKK>QQQ+2: WR 92.3% (N=26, PF=55). Triple confirmation. N small but extreme.
A+ SETUP Semi LONG + rot_favorable + ARKK>QQQ+2: WR 90.5% (N=42, PF=19.6). ARKK risk-on + semi PM leadership = near-certain continuation.
A SETUP Semi LONG + rot_favorable + fc_confirms: WR 69.1% (N=408, PF=3.81). Workhorse combo. High N, reliable.
A SETUP Semi LONG + rot_favorable + mom 0.5-2%: WR 77.9% (N=145, PF=5.71). Sweet spot momentum.
A SETUP Soft SHORT + rot_favorable + fc_confirms: WR 66.7% (N=576, PF=3.33). Software fading after PM strength.
A SETUP Soft LONG + rot_favorable + fc + mom 0.5-2%: WR 73.1% (N=271, PF=3.18). Requires aligned momentum.
TIMING 9:00-9:25 window is the best signal. Sharper than 8:00-9:00 or full 8:00-9:25. Delta Semi LONG: 19.6pp vs 10.9pp.
TIMING Semi LONG fav rotation: best exit at m15-m20 (9:40-9:45). WR 57.6% vs 53.6% at m30. Soft SHORT fav: earlier exit m15 best (54.1%).
STREAK Semi leading 3d+: Soft SHORT peaks (63.3% N=313), Soft LONG crashes (35.5%). Semi LONG best at 2d streak (61.8%).
MAGNITUDE Semi LONG sweet spot: -2% to -1% rotation (WR 63.4%, N=172) and 0.5-1.5% (WR ~65%). Extreme <-2%: still good (62%), but extreme >2%: bad (42.9%).
TRAP Any setup without fc_confirms: WR drops 25-30pp. fc=N + fav rotation = still below 42%.
TRAP Soft LONG when Semi>Soft mild (-1 to -0.5%): WR 24.0% (N=242). Absolute worst bucket.
TRAP Semi SHORT when 1:2% Soft>Semi: WR 18.9% (N=122). Capital rotating to soft = don't short semi.
TRAP Counter-momentum: rot_favorable + mom<-2% (LONG) = WR 11-21%. Rotation can't save bad momentum.

Scoring Integration Recommendation

FactorConditionScore AdjEvidence
PM Rotation 9:00-9:25Favorable + fc_confirms+2Semi LONG 69.1%, Soft SHORT 66.7%
PM Rotation 9:00-9:25Favorable (no fc)+1Semi LONG 56.6% baseline lift
PM Rotation 9:00-9:25Unfavorable + no fc-2WR drops to 35-42%
PM Rotation mild -1:-0.5Soft LONG any-3 (SKIP)WR 24% (N=242)
Semi lead streak 3d+Soft SHORT+163.3% (N=313)
Semi lead streak 3d+Soft LONG-235.5% (N=459)