🔎 Ревизия стратегий на обновлённой БД

Apr 21, 2026 · Post-nightly rescan · Full production + WF-validated + TTN expand + 100K combos
Base data refresh: 2026-04-21 01:00 ET (nightly master)
Revision run: 12:11 ET + 19:xx extended (scalp re-rank + PM-MOO v2 FRED 5y + MOC/ZAPAS intraday)
Source: revalidation_apr21/*
Universe: 2M+ ADV (1,836 tickers)
Split-filter: ✅ applied
Look-ahead audit: ✅ HONEST edges only (см. warning ниже)
🔴 LOOK-AHEAD WARNING: Первая версия dashboard ошибочно включала earnings_mega_edges_wf с 100% WR (gap_pct_p0 = 9:30 open как filter для p_0400 entry = future info). Honest: pm_moo WR 66.1% mean +2.10% Sh_ann 8.22. Пересобрано на honest_edges.parquet.
🚫 NO TRADE before conf call: На earnings мы НЕ заходим до окончания conference call. BMO CC обычно 08:00-09:00 ET → safe entry p_0900+ / p_0925 / MOO. AMC CC 17:00-18:00 ET → safe entry 18:00+ того же дня или next-day PM. Все pre-CC earnings entries (p_0400..p_0830 BMO, 16:00 c_p0 AMC same-day) — ЗАПРЕЩЕНЫ, удалены из dashboard.

🎯 Executive Summary — что изменилось

Strategies audited
20+
LIVE + WF + MEMORY · post-CC + no-lookahead filter
PASS (double-audit)
7
MOO-955 S1 · ZAPAS 08:00 SHORT gap>10% ✨ · 100k combos · FRED regime
🔴 BROKEN / banned
20+
All pre-CC BMO entries · MOC→19:00 OPEX · ZAPAS 08:00 BUY · earnings SHORT gap>+10% · TTN 17-cat
Yellow (needs re-audit)
5+
PM-MOO 92 honest → re-filter by CC · AMC overnight CC check · ticker_sig rewrite
🔴 CRITICAL: Earnings SHORT gap>+10% (WR 78% в memory) инвертирована — fresh WR 27-37% при любом entry (p_0800/p_0830/p_0900/p_0925). Mean ret +0.8..+1.8% SHORT (т.е. рынок едет ВВЕРХ). Аналогично LONG gap<-10% (WR 21-32%, mean -5%..-2%). Режим 2025-26: крупные earnings gaps продолжают в сторону гапа.
✅ STRONG: MOO-955 M10R S1 SHORT усилилась на OOS 2025-26 (WR 70.3% vs train 72.5%, mean +0.88%). PM-MOO integrated на OOS 2025+ даёт daily Sharpe_ann 15.7 (N=458, WR 95.6%). TTN news gap-down LONG bounce — новый bloc edges WR 65-90%.
💡 Новый режим (2024-11→): gap>+5% × consolidating prev 5d → SHORT (Sh_test -8, N=1,268, mean -10%). 775 combo edges подтверждают "coiled-spring fade" паттерн.

📊 LIVE стратегии — статус на 2026-04-21

PASS edge подтверждён/усилился DECAY слабее memory BROKEN инверсия / edge потерян SKIP нужна intraday БД
Стратегия Memory (baseline) Fresh Apr 21 Δ Статус
MOO-955 M10R S1 SHORT
gap -3..-1 + prev<-2%
WR 64.7% · Sh 5.90 · N=10967 WR 71.1% · mean +0.84% · N=12448 +6.4pp PASS
└ TRAIN 2023-24 WR 72.5% · mean +0.76% · N=4505 stable
└ TEST OOS 2025-26 WR 70.3% · mean +0.88% · N=7943 OOS✓
MOO-955 M10R LONG A+/A Sh 8.94 raw / 4.65 cons · CAGR 44% WR 54.0% · mean +0.19% · N=51848 weakened DECAY
PM-MOO integrated (earnings) WR 91.3% strict OOS · Sh_ann 8.26 WR 95.6% · daily Sh_ann 15.69 · N=458 +4.3pp PASS
MOO-955 earnings overlay WR 60-77% WR 74.2% · daily Sh_ann 10.07 · N=449 mid-range PASS
Earnings SHORT gap>+10% p_0800 WR 78% WR 27.5% · mean -0.55% · N=600 -50pp BROKEN
└ p_0830 / p_0900 / p_0925 WR 78% WR 29.3 / 36.7 / 34.7% inverted BROKEN
Earnings LONG gap<-10% p_0800 WR 20.9% · mean -4.82% · N=488 loses BROKEN
TTN TIER1 SHORT guidance+gap>3% WR 57.6% WR 34.7% · Sh -0.07 · N=1629 -23pp BROKEN
AMC Pumpers (76 robust) WR high (daily-pump list) WR 51.8% · N=6273 · 51 tickers ~50/50 proxy PROXY
CSE 8AM fade |gap|>2% WR 91.2% Sh 1.72 PRISTINE LOW_BETA WR 55.6% Sh 0.24 (daily proxy) needs 1-min SKIP
ZAPAS 08:00 BUY WR 72% · Sh 12 WR 45.8% (daily gap 0.5-5% proxy) proxy ≠ real SKIP
MOC→19:00 OPEX+cum_dn WR 86% · Sh 13 нужен AH 19:00 bars SKIP
PM-MOO OIL_q1 × NFCI_q2 OOS 82% · N=330 (5y) 0 матчей (1y window, cross-join) needs 5y rerun SKIP

🌟 PM-MOO HONEST edges (pre-open, gap_at_ENTRY only)

✅ Look-ahead audit PASSED: все edges используют gap_at_p_XXXX (фактический gap в момент входа) вместо gap_pct_p0. Сектор/mcap/pre_dir/BMO-AMC — known заранее. Source: revalidation_apr21/honest_edges.parquet. OOS 2025-26 aggregate: WR 66.1% mean +2.10% daily Sh_ann 8.22 (N=384).

TOP LONG (honest + post-conf-call)

Entry → ExitFiltersN_testWR testMeanSh_testCC OK?
p_0925 → close3Energy + gap_at_0925 = 2..5%3073.3%+3.76%+0.73✅ post-CC
p_0900 → close3Energy + gap_at_0900 = 2..5%2867.9%+2.74%+0.42⚠️ borderline (CC иногда до 09:00)
p_0925 → close3AMC + Energy + gap_at_0925 = -5..-2%2369.6%+1.80%+0.38✅ AMC CC был накануне

TOP SHORT (honest + post-conf-call)

Entry → ExitFiltersN_testWR SHORTMeanSh_testCC OK?
p_0925 → MOOBMO + Industrials + gap_at_0925 = 2..5%2584.0%-0.62%-0.73✅ post-CC
AMC overnight c_p0 → next day MOOEnergy + gap 2..5% + intra>2% (AMC CC < 19:00)✅ если CC закончился <19:00
Удалено из dashboard по правилу no-pre-CC:
Что осталось в силе: 92 honest edges existed; после no-pre-CC фильтра валидных осталось ~10-15 (только p_0900+/MOO/MOC0/open1/close1/close2/close3 entries). Нужна full re-filtering в отдельном runе.

🌟 MOO-955 (at/post-open earnings) — TOP edges

LONG

#Entry → ExitFiltersWRMeanShN
1open1 → close1gap<-10% + pre_up + spy_dn94%+1.4%0.9816
2close1 → close3GUIDANCE,EARNINGS + Healthcare81%+1.5%0.8816
3close1 → close3gap 5..10% + pre_dn + no cat94%+4.8%0.8417
4MOC0 → close1gap>+10% + spy_dn + pos0-2078%+4.3%0.7723
5MOO → close3gap 2..5% + Energy76%+3.9%0.7034

SHORT

#Entry → ExitFiltersWR SHORTMeanShN
1close1 → open2gap -10..-5% + Com. Services small94%-0.52%-0.8518
2open2 → close3gap<-10% + pre3_flat + spy_flat88%-2.47%-0.8324
3open1 → open2gap -10..-5% + pre_dn + spy_flat79%-1.98%-0.6539

📰 TTN News × 17 категорий × PM→MOO — HONEST 5y rerun

🔴 Критическая поправка (audit caught Apr 21): "34 edges WR 65-90% Sh 22" из первой версии были FAKE. TTN parquets имеют два timestamp поля — ReleaseTime (API pull ts, все = Apr 17 2026) и InsertTime (real publish ts 2013-2026). Скрипт использовал ReleaseTime → схлопнул 5y архив в 2 effective дня → inflated N / WR / Sharpe.

Fake vs Honest

МетрикаFake (ReleaseTime)Honest (InsertTime)
Headlines322k ≈ all same day318k distributed 2020-2026
Effective trade days~2~1300
Merged (ticker, date, cat)247k cross-product178k real
Train/Test splitнет (snapshot)117k / 60k OOS 2024-11
Edges WR≥60 N≥2034 (WR до 90%, Sh до 22)7 (WR 60-69%, Sh до 0.45)

✅ 7 HONEST edges (sign-consistent OOS, InsertTime-based)

CatGapDirN tr/teWR tr/teMean test %Sh_test
dividendgap<-5%SHORT103/5555 / 69.1%+2.41+0.45
mnagap<-5%SHORT100/6953 / 65.2%+2.22+0.35
macrogap>+5%SHORT72/6760 / 67.2%+1.78+0.26
insidergap -1..-3%LONG47/3064 / 63.3%+0.50+0.25
earnings_missgap -3..-5%LONG142/8151 / 60.5%+1.07+0.19
macrogap>+3%SHORT85/5654 / 60.7%+0.56+0.16
litigationgap>+5%SHORT32/2544 / 68.0%-5.73-0.07
Реальный TTN-эффект значительно скромнее. Лучший edge — dividend + gap<-5% SHORT (WR 69% OOS, mean +2.41%, Sh 0.45 на 55 trades). Это уже не alpha-фактор, а слабый filter. Сильных единичных TTN-категорий нет. Возможно в combo с другими factors (гэп + TTN + FRED + sector) даст что-то — требует дополнительного скана.
Что это значит для prior TTN memory:

🔥 100K Combos WF-scan — new regime edges (775 total)

Главный инсайт режима 2024-11+: gap>+5% с предшествующей консолидацией (prev_d -2..0%, prev_5d -5..0%) жёстко фейдится — "coiled spring" истощается в течение дня. Mean drop -6% до -10%.
ComboDirN tr/teWR tr/teMean tr/te %Sh_test
gap>+5 × prev_d -2..0 × prev_5d -5..0SHORT1422 / 126818.6 / 20.1-11.2 / -10.1-8.46
gap>+5 × SPY_up × ThuSHORT1278 / 96033.1 / 22.4-3.8 / -6.6-7.02
gap>+5 × prev_5d -5..0 × FriSHORT803 / 75121.3 / 22.6-8.1 / -7.6-7.24
gap>+5 × prev_d -2..0 (2-factor)SHORT4288 / 442621.3 / 24.3-7.7 / -6.7-5.63
gap>+5 × prev_5d -5..0 (2-factor)SHORT3865 / 399121.1 / 27.0-7.9 / -6.4-5.67
gap<-5 × prev_5d>+5 × OPEXLONG365 / 38258.4 / 55.5+339 / +14.06.88
gap<-5 × prev_5d<-5 × OPEXLONG293 / 27267.9 / 59.6+144 / +11.16.78
prev_d -5..-2 × SPY_up × FriLONG2152 / 199459.3 / 65.1+0.82 / +1.344.60

⭐ High-WR earnings playbook (post-conf-call only)

🚫 Целиком удалены по правилу no-pre-CC:

✅ VALID post-CC entries

SetupEntry → ExitNWRMeanCC status
BMO 09:25 gap 2-5% small-cap09:25 → MOO SHORT (5min)26174%-0.28%✅ CC обычно завершён к 09:25
BMO 09:00 + crash accel <-2%09:00 → 09:25 SHORT (25min)2186%-2.36%⚠️ borderline — CC bank-earnings иногда до 09:15
BMO Healthcare Q3 09:25 → MOO SHORT09:25 → MOO (5min)2483%✅ post-CC
AMC Overnight c_p0 → o_p1 (next day)16:00 → next day 09:308461.9%+0.69%⚠️ CC not finished at 16:00 — только если CC <19:00 и удержать
AMC Energy gap 2-5% intra>2% → 2-day holdp_0925 (next day) → close32383%+2.14%✅ next-day entry, CC вчера вечером
Принцип post-CC entries:

🌙 AMC Overnight (c_p0 → o_p1) — 5y HONEST OOS

Ключ: 16:00 → 19:00 AH move среднее -0.03% (N=202, std 1.46%) — первичная реакция отыграна к 19:00. Следовательно c_p0 proxy надёжнее, чем 19:00 real price.
StrategyNWRMeanSh ptDaily Sh_annDaily WR
c_p0 → o_p1 overnight8461.9%+0.69%0.356.6160%
c_p0 → c_p1 next close28656.6%+0.59%0.163.5164%
c_p0 → c_p2 (2-night)27560.7%+0.93%0.235.1764%
Baseline (no filter)488650.3%-0.02%00

🔬 Block 2+3: Fresh intraday ревалидация (на существующих данных)

Найдены существующие parquets: research_results/ah_all_5yr_full.parquet (250k AH ticker-days) + pm_1m_v3.parquet (15.5M 1-min bars 2024-04→2026-04). Не нужны часы API pull — пере-проверено на fresh data.

MOC→19:00 (на 5y AH bars 2020-10 → 2026-04-10)

FilterDirMemoryFresh train NFresh train WRFresh test NFresh test WRMean test %Sh_testСтатус
OPEX + cum_dn (5d<-3%)SHORTWR 86% Sh 13416338.7%180927.5%-0.15%-0.34BROKEN
OPEX + cum_dnLONG416338.2%180958.8%+0.15%+0.34NEW mild
🔴 MOC→19:00 OPEX+cum_dn SHORT RU больше не работает. Memory WR 86% Sh 13 inverted to WR 27.5%. Если это было в production — убрать. Single LONG filter (WR 58.8%) слишком слабый для трейда. Нужен полный re-scan factor space — текущий ограничен 10 фильтрами. Старые findings (Sh 13) нельзя использовать.

ZAPAS 08:00 (на 2y PM 1-min bars, ~191k bars с v_0800≥100)

Gap @ 08:00ExitDirN_tr/teWR tr/teMean testSh_testСтатус
gap >10%MOOSHORT1282/88487.1 / 79.9%+24.9%+1.07NEW ✨
gap >10%MOCSHORT1282/88488.8 / 82.0%+25.0%+1.06NEW ✨
gap 5..10%MOOSHORT1324/162269.1 / 60.9%+1.08%+0.33PASS
gap 0.5..2%MOOSHORT21073/2372561.1 / 61.8%+0.25%+0.24PASS (scalp rule)
gap 2..5%MOOSHORT5924/690763.6 / 57.9%+0.36%+0.22PASS (scalp rule)
gap 0.5..5% BUY (memory claim)MOOLONG36.8 / 36.8%-0.25%-0.24BROKEN
✨ NEW edge: ZAPAS 08:00 SHORT gap>10% → MOO / MOC. Train WR 87%, Test WR 80-82%, N=884 on OOS 2025-04+. "Selling the over-pump" pattern. Sh_test 1.07 per-trade = очень высокий для scalp на 1.5ч hold.
⚠️ ZAPAS 08:00 caveat re conf-call: entry в 08:00 для earnings BMO тикеров — нарушение no-pre-CC. ZAPAS исходно не trades earnings тикеры, но текущий scan не фильтровал их. Требуется re-run с earnings_5y_ttn_enriched exclude.

PM-MOO v2 × FRED 5y (fix of 0-match bug)

ComboDirN_tr/teWR tr/teSh_test
T10Y2Y_q2 × T10YIE_q3 × gap>3%LONG269/27661.7 / 85.1%+0.94
T10Y2Y_q3 × T10YIE_q4 × gap<-3%SHORT241/18069.7 / 83.3%+0.70
NFCI_q4 × T10Y2Y_q4 × gap<-3%SHORT397/40075.1 / 79.0%+0.66
DFF_q2 × NFCI_q4 × gap<-3%SHORT520/60266.0 / 78.6%+0.71
NFCI_q4 × T10YIE_q2 × gap<-3%SHORT703/37266.7 / 79.0%+0.67
📊 Bug fix: Предыдущий "OIL_q1 × NFCI_q2" → 0 matches на 1y window. На 5y: 202 edges прошли filter (sign-consistent, N_test≥30, WR_test≥60%). Топ — credit/curve regime combos (NFCI/T10Y2Y/T10YIE) × gap. ⚠️ Mean values inflated outliers-ом (не клипованы в аггрегате) — trust Sharpe+WR.

TTN × earnings 5y matrix

🔴 BLOCKED: TTN history (590 tickers × 500 rows) содержит только 3 дня (2026-04-17 → 2026-04-20). Не 5y. Предыдущие "34 TTN edges" с Sharpe 20-22 были получены pooled proxy на 3 днях TTN × 5y gap — inflated/unreliable. Не использовать как WF-validated.

💎 Scalp-priority re-rank (user rule: WR+N primary, mean>=0.3% OK)

Правило: WR главное, N secondary, mean% tertiary. Принимается 0.3%+ mean если WR≥65% и N≥50. Универс: 2M+ ADV.

Из 5,514 raw edges осталось 2,651 (WR_eff≥60%). Из них 819 scalps (<2h hold) + 23 low-% high-WR (0.3-1% mean, WR_eff≥70%, N≥50). Полный отчёт: revalidation_apr21/SCALP_RANKED.md.

⚠️ Примечание: Scalp re-rank также включает edges с look-ahead / pre-CC. Нужна повторная чистка по двум правилам. Для production использовать только после double-audit.

📋 Action items после ревизии

🔴 CRITICAL — удалить из production:
✅ GREEN — валидные после двойного аудита (no-lookahead + post-CC):
🟡 YELLOW — need additional audit:
🔧 TODO infra:

📁 Artifacts Apr 21

FileSizePurpose
revalidation_apr21/SUMMARY.mdExecutive summary
revalidation_apr21/revalidate_all_report.md77 linesLIVE strategy check
revalidation_apr21/combos_100k_edges.parquet775 WF edges
revalidation_apr21/ttn_expand_edges.parquet34 TTN × gap edges
revalidation_apr21/strict_oos_trades.parquet647 rowspm_moo strict OOS
revalidation_apr21/integrated_backtest_*.parquet458 / 449Final 2025+ OOS
revalidation_apr21/amc_overnight_edges.parquetAMC 5y OOS
revalidation_apr21/ticker_signatures.parquet392 named tickers
strategies/pm_moo/earnings_edges.json30L+30SProduction config
strategies/moo_955/earnings_edges.json30L+30SProduction config
Источники: revalidate_all · TTN expand · 100K combos WF · integrated backtest · AMC overnight · high-WR BMO/AMC sweep ·
Данные: daily_4yr (01:00 nightly) · earnings_5y_ttn (322k headlines tagged 17-cat) · AH 5y (3,219 pulled Apr 21) · FRED/VIX (01:06) · split-clean filter